I was at a bookstore in Fort Mason and came across “The Age of Intelligent Machines,” which Kurzweil wrote in 1998/9. In it, he makes predictions for the years 2009, 2019, 2029, 2049.
Predictions
- A $1000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is now approximately equal to the computational ability of the human brain.
- Computers are now largely invisible and are embedded everywhere — in walls, tables, chairs, desks, clothing, jewelry, and bodies.
- Three-dimensional virtual reality displays, embedded in glasses and contact lenses, as well as auditory “lenses,” are used routinely as primary interfaces for communication with other persons, computers, the Web, and virtual reality.
- Most interaction with computing is through gestures and two-way natural-language spoken communication.
- Nanoengineered machines are beginning to be applied to manufacturing and process-control applications.
- High-resolution, three-dimensional visual and auditory virtual reality and realistic all-encompassing tactile environments enable people to do virtually anything with anybody, regardless of physical proximity.
- Paper books or documents are rarely used and most learning is conducted through intelligent simulated software-based teachers
- Blind persons routinely use eyeglass-mounted reading-navigation systems. Deaf persons read what other people are saying through their lens displays. Paraplegic and some quadriplegic persons routinely walk and climb stairs through a combination of computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic devices
- The vast majority of transactions include a simulated person.
- Automated driving systems are now installed in most roads.
- People are beginning to have relationships with automated personalities and use them as companions, teachers, caretakers, and lovers.
- Virtual artists, with their own reputations, are emerging in all of the arts.
- There are widespread reports of computers passing the Turing Test, although these tests do not meet the criteria established by knowledgeable observers.
Comments
- Fairly spot-on for VR! (as far as the current capabilities)
- No roadmap currently exists for producing a contact lens AR display, to my knowledge
- Mobile phones were not predicted, although he did have a sense that devices with computational capacity would exist in additional form factors
- Broadly, he overestimated technological progress in AI, although many of the things he listed (virtual artists, automated personalities as caretakers, automated driving systems, MOOCs) seem to be the direction things are headed in
- The prediction around nanotechnology is the most hand-wavy — my guess is that manufacturing, MEMS, mechanical engineering were fields Kurzweil was less familiar with at the time.
